CLOSING IN ON .400? OR IS IT GONE FOREVER?

Next season will mark the 70th anniversary of Ted Williams hitting .406. When "Teddy Ballgame" finished that season, he accomplished what had not been done in eleven years. Did anyone following baseball during the summer of 1941 think that seven decades later we would still be waiting for that next .400 hitter?

To gain some perspective, lets take a look back. During the summer of 1941, Jimmie Foxx joined Babe Ruth as the only players to crack 500 career home runs. Mel Ott, who would be the third, finished the year with 415 career dingers. Babe Ruth and his 714 home runs had been gone from the game for six years. The Tigers Hank Greenberg, the 1940 AL MVP, received his call to service on May 7 and would forsake his $55,000 salary to become "the best soldier that I can be". Walter Johnson was in the twentieth year of what would be a sixty-one year reign as baseball's strikeout king. The league minimum salary hovered around $5000 and we were nearly a decade away from baseball's first $100,000 player. Only 6 players had amassed 3000 hits and thirteen of the 27 players who now occupy that same list had yet to be born.

We stand on the threshold of the 2010 season, and as mentioned, 27 men have reached the 3000th hit plateau, the last being Houston Astro Craig Biggio in 2007. The closest active players to that coveted mark are Ken Griffey Jr. (2763) and Derek Jeter (2747) so it appears that it will not be until 2011 until another joins this exclusive fraternity. Twenty five men have surpassed 500 career homers, the last being Gary Sheffield in April of last year. Five of those players (Griffey, ARod, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome and Sheffield) are still active. Carlos DelGado (473) is the closest active player to the 500 mark. Nolan Ryan is the reigning king of strikeouts (5714) and eight others have passed Walter Johnson. With this winter's retirements of Randy Johnson and John Smoltz and with Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez still looking for work, Jamie Moyer is the active leader with 2342 punch outs. I think Ryan will be safe for a while. Oh and in 2009, the average salary in major league baseball topped the 3 million dollar mark, 434 players earned a million dollars or more, 85 earned 10 million dollars or more, the league minimum was $390,000 and the gross revenues for the 2009 season were 6.6 billion dollars (up 1/2 billion from 2008).

As we begin the second decade of the twenty first century, the .370 mark has been reached only thirteen times by eleven players. The .380 mark has been hit 4 times and the .390 mark but twice (and one of them was the strike shortened season of 1994).

PLAYERS BATTING .370 OR HIGHER SINCE 1941......

STAN MUSIAL- CARDINALS

1948-.376 with 230 hits in 611 AB with 694 plate appearances.

He fell 15 hits short of .400.

TED WILLIAMS-RED SOX

1957 - .388 with 163 hits in 420 AB with 546 plate appearances.

He fell 5 hits short of .400

ROD CAREW- TWINS

1977- .388 with 239 hits in 616 AB with 694 plate appearances.

He fell 8 hits short of .400.

GEORGE BRETT- ROYALS

1980-.390 with 175 hits in 444 AB with 515 plate appearances.

He fell 5 hits short of .400.

TONY GWYNN- PADRES

1987-.370 with 218 hits in 589 AB with 680 plate appearances.

He fell 18 hits short of .400.

ANDRES GALARRAGA- ROCKIES

1993-.370 with 174 hits in 470 AB with 506 plate appearances.

He fell 14 hits short of .400.

TONY GWYNN- PADRES

1994**- .394 with 165 hits in 419 AB with 475 plate appearances.

He fell 3 hits short of .400.

The asterisks indicate that this was a strike shortened season and thus cannot be counted as a full major league season. Therefore it was not considered the "closest" to come to .400.

TONY GWYNN- PADRES

1997- .372 with 220 hits in 592 AB with 651 plate appearances.

He fell 17 hits short of .400.

LARRY WALKER- EXPOS

1999- .379 with 166 hits in 438 AB with 513 plate appearances.

He fell 9 hits short of .400.

TODD HELTON- ROCKIES

2000- .372 with 216 hits in 580 AB with 697 plate appearances.

He fell 16 hits short of .400.

NOMAR GARCIAPARRA- RED SOX

2000- .372 with 197 hits in 529 AB with 599 plate appearances.

He fell 15 hits short of .400.

BARRY BONDS- GIANTS

2002- .370 with 149 hits in 403 AB with 612 plate appearances.

He fell 12 hits short of .400.

ICHIRO- MARINERS

2004- .372 with 262* hits in 704 AB with 762 plate appearances.

He fell 20 hits short of .400.

*Broke an 82 year old record for hits in a season. (George Sisler 257 in 1922)

POINTS OF INTEREST.....

* Of these thirteen players, only Galarraga and Garciaparra are right handed hitters.

* Although he broke the record for hits in a season in 2004, Ichiro finished more hits away from .400 than anyone else on this list.

The list speaks for itself and a surface look tells us that Ted Williams and George Brett came the closest, within 5 hits, of hitting the magic number of .400. Rod Carew came within 8 hits of the magic number and it is his season that we will take a look at first.

Carew hit .388 in 1977 and it was a remarkable season in that it most resembled the .400 seasons of old; marked by his high number of hits (239) and his near 700 plate appearances. This was the norm for virtually all .400 hitters who preceded him. He never really challenged the .400 mark as he entered September hitting .378. He went 0-4 in the first game of the month and then exploded in a 15 game hitting streak in which he registered 10 multiple hit games (four of them with 3 hits). He cooled for about a week slipping to .312 over a four game stretch and finished his last five games going 12-20 with three, three hit games. Entering into the month hitting .378 with 518 at bats, Carew raised his average 10 points to finish the year at .388. He hit safely in 22 of his last 25 games with 15 of them multi hit contests and in seven of them he registered three hits. He batted .439 during the final month coming up just 8 hits shy of .400. Rod Carew simply ran out of baseball season.

When Ted Williams celebrated his 40th birthday on August 30, 1957 he was not feeling well. In fact he was suffering from an upper respiratory infection that was about to shelve him for two and a half weeks. He entered the month of September, like Carew, hitting .378. On the first of the month, he struck out in a pinch hit appearance and did not step back into the batters box until the 17th of September, having missed 14 games. His return was another pinch hit and this time he singled. The next game, he pinched hit and walked, the next another pinch hit and this time he homered. He returned to the line up on September 21st and would not make an out for four games. His record breaking streak of reaching base in 16 consecutive at bats stretched over six games. From his return to the lineup on Sept 17 until the end of the season, he went 12-19 (.632) raising his average 10 points to finish at .388 and falling 5 hits short of joining Hornsby, Cobb and Sisler as the only players with multiple .400 seasons. Williams, like Carew, just ran out of time.

The man to come the closest of them all was George Brett in 1980. Not only because he, like Ted, was only 5 hits away, but because he was at the .400 mark later in the season than anybody. He began the month of September hitting .405, capping an amazing streak of hitting. At the 1980 All Star break, he was hitting .337. All he did was tear through the dog days, batting an astounding .495 in the month of July and an equally astounding .430 through August. He did this while battling with torn ligaments in his ankle. He stumbled through the first week of the September and finally his ankle took him out of the line up for nine games. He made his return in the second game of a doubleheader on September 17th going 2-5 and with 16 games to go he was at .398. His next two games he went 2-3 and 2-4 and with just 14 games left in the season, George Brett was hitting .401.

That was as close as he'd get as the next seven games he went 5-28 and with six games remaining he had dipped to .385. Like Carew and Williams, he finished strong going 9-18 in his last five games and he reached the .390 mark, only 5 hits short of .400. However, Carew and Williams, simply ran out of time, Brett, on the other hand, ran out of gas.

The question is there to be debated and kicked around by pundits, talking heads, in bars and pool halls, living rooms and ball parks; will we ever see another .400 hitter? Those who say no will tell you the game has changed too much, pitching in particular. A batter rarely sees a pitcher four times in a game and if he does, it's because he's throwing lights out. Bullpens are replete with pitchers who are targeted to get just one guy out. I suspect, however, that somewhere down the road the unreachable star will be reached. However, I think it will be by a hitter who has been shelved for a good chunk of his season therefore limiting his plate appearances to 525 or 550. I do know this, if you hear anybody yapping about a player hitting .400 when he's batting .438 in June, shut him off, he's an idiot! If however, it's early September and he's hitting .405, pay attention, at least the ride will be fun!

THE HEART AND SOUL OF BASEBALL.....

There is a purity in the game of baseball which lies in the fact that it is a marvelous metaphor for life! It is a game in which individuals compete against one another in one on one match ups (batter versus pitcher) yet that individual encounter takes place within the framework of a team. It is a game that is wrought with failure, for the best offensive players will fail between 60 and 70% of the time. It is a game which is defined by battling back from adversity, some created by the individual and some far beyond their control. It is life in its purest form.

Saturday I had the privilege of witnessing baseball, and the love of it, in that purest form when I watched the Venice Little League Challenger Program compete against and with the Venice High School baseball team. The Challenger Program is a program in which individuals who face a myriad of physical and mental challenges, compete and play baseball. It was started in 1989 and today 30,000 individuals participate in over 900 Challenger programs throughout the world. The Venice Challenger Program has been running for 14 years and has maintained a ten year association with the Venice High School Baseball Program. This culminates in a ball game at the Venice High School Field complete with lining up on the lines for the National Anthem and a hot dog feast with all the amenities. And in between, they play the game.

Each player is hooked up with a buddy from the High School team, or the Cheerleading Squad; and as the squads make their way to their respective dugouts, they do so with "buddy" in tow. An inning consists of each player batting once. The buddy will assist them in running, if need be, or perhaps push their wheelchair towards first after they have hit the ball. Have you ever seen a blind baseball player strike a pitched baseball? I did and watching the determination and effort on this young man would move even the crustier among us. Everyone who hits the ball is safe. Everyone who hits the ball is out, sometimes several times. Everyone who hits the ball rounds the bases and scores. And in the end, the Challenger team wins, everybody wins. The reason is simple, because in this game of baseball, as in life, it's all about the journey. The journey from home to home, the journey from the dugout to the playing field, the journey in tracking down a batted ball wherever it may take you. It was a journey filled with joy!

The hills roll out from the sleepy rural town of Cooperstown New York and they seemingly roll on forever. Nestled away in their midst is heaven, baseball heaven. The place where ballplayers go to be immortalized. The place where careers and accomplishment of players who performed at the very highest level still live, still breathe and their presence is palpable. There are those that will suggest that it is where the soul of America is housed. Having visited there and paid homage many times, I would not dispute that claim but I would add that the heart of this great game and the heart of this great country beats in the Challenger Program.

Oh, and as for the game, 14-13 The Challengers won, AGAIN! But the real winners were those of us who were there, touched by the lives of those who for an hour took us with them on their journey from home to home!.....Thanks.

ROGERS HORNSBY...AN UNPARRALLED STRETCH

Eighty five years ago, in the 1925 season, Rogers Hornsby, the Hall of Fame second baseman of the St. Louis Cardinals finished the year with a .403 batting average. It was good enough to garner his fifth straight National League batting title and his second Triple Crown in four season. It also capped off a streak of five years which, if this game is played for another million years, will never, ever be duplicated!

It was the second consecutive .400 season for the man they called "Rajah" and it was his third .400 season in four as he sandwiched a paltry .384 batting average in 1923. Imagine, stringing together seasons hitting, .397, .401, .384, .424 and .403? That's exactly what he did from 1921 through 1925 and incredibly during that stretch of five years he hit .402!!!!!

The Holy Grail of hitters is the .400 mark. It has occurred twenty eight times since the games inception in 1869. However, in the modern era, which began with the birth of the American League in 1901, it has happened only thirteen times. More astonishingly than that is the fact that only eight players have hit that mark. Ty Cobb joins Hornsby in having done it three times (.420 in 1911, .409 in 1912 and .401 in 1922). George Sisler did in twice (.407 in 1920 and .420 in 1922). The other five to turn the trick in order are: Nap Lajoie (.427 in 1901), "Shoeless" Joe Jackson (.408 in 1911), Harry Heilman (.403 in 1923), Bill Terry (.401 in 1930) and Ted Williams (.406 in 1941).

The other two hitters with multiple .400 seasons have enjoyed similar stretches. Ty Cobb came close to Hornsby's feat hitting .397 from 1910 through the 1914 season. He did in fact hit .401 from the start of the 1910 campaign through the end of 1913 and in 1910, 11, 12 he batted .405. The other multiple achiever, George Sisler hit, .400 on the nose from 1920 through 1922. These are remarkable achievements! Cobb hitting .401 through four complete seasons and Sisler hitting .400 through three. However, "Rajah" is the king of the .400 hundred hitters; doing it for half a decade, through FIVE COMPLETE SEASONS!

PLAYER...........YEAR......AVG......HITS... PA.... OBP..... OPS

Nap Lajoie........1901 .......426....... 232..... 582....463...... 1.106

Joe Jackson......1911........408........233......641....468.......1.058

Ty Cobb.........1911.......420........248......654....467.......1.088

Ty Cobb.........1912.......409........226......609....456......1.041

George Sisler...1920........407........257......631.....449......1.082

George Sisler....1922.......420........246......654.....467......1.061

Ty Cobb........1922.......401....... 211...... 612.....462......1.026

Rog. Hornsby..1922.......401.......250.......704.....459.......1.181

Har. Heilman...1923.......403......211........626.....481.......1.113

Rog. Hornsby..1924........424......227.......640......507.....1.203

Rog. Hornsby..1925........403.....203.......605......489......1.245

Bill Terry........1930.......401.....254........710......452......1.071

T. Williams.....1941.......406....185.........606......553......1.287

Some interesting notes and observations about this very elite group of hitters.

* Shoeless Joe Jackson accomplished his feat in his rookie year.

* Shoeless Joe hit .408 and did not win a batting title.

* Ty Cobb joined Jackson as the only players to hit .400 in a season and not win a batting title. He hit .401 in 1920 and Sisler hit .420.

* Lajoie, Heilman and Hornsby batted right handed, the others are left handed swingers.

* Williams is the only player to hit .400 and not get 200 hits in that season.

* Williams had the highest on base percentage .553 during a .400 season.

* Williams had the highest OPS 1.287 in a .400 season.

* Hornsby is the only other player to have an on base percentage higher than .500.

* Hornsby hit the most home runs in a .400 season, 42 in 1922.

* Hornsby won the Triple Crown in two of his .400 seasons, 1922 and 1925.

* Lajoie did it in the least amount of plate appearences, 582.

* Lajoie has the record for the highest batting average in the modern era, .427.

* Hornsby and Terry hit .400 in over 700 plate appearances.

* Hitting .400 occurred 7 times from 1920-25. The nascent years of the "Live Ball Era."

*Five of the .400 season involved all time top ten number of hits in a season: #2,Sisler, 257 in 1920, #3, Terry, 254 in 1930, Hornsby, #6, 250, in 1922, Cobb,# 8, 248 in 1911 and Sisler again #9, 246, in 1922.

* Sisler held the record for hits in a season for 84 years until Ichiro had 262 hits in 2004.

* Every player who hit .400 is in the Hall of Fame with the exception of Shoeless Joe.

Have we seen the last of the .400 hitters? It has been nearly seven decades since Ted Williams accomplished this remarkable feat. The tale is forever woven into the fabric of baseball history. It was the last weekend of the season, Ted was hitting .3996 which rounded up to .400. At the time, it had been eleven years since Bill Terry of the NY Giants had cracked that barrier. Red Sox manager Joe Cronin had suggested that "The Kid" sit it out and take his .400 average for the season. Ted would have none of it, played both ends of the double header, went 6-8 and finished the year at .406. Since that time only two players have even cracked the .390 mark.

If the moment comes when a major leaguer reaches the .400 mark in a season, he will do so with a fanfare and whoop la that will make the McGwire/Sosa charade of 1998 seem like a picnic. The story of Ted Williams will be told and retold and a whole new generation will become familiar with the greatness that was Ted Williams. But I wonder how many stories will be told about Rogers Hornsby, "Rajah" the soft spoken second baseman of the St. Louis Cardinals who hit .400 hundred not just in a season but for HALF of a DECADE, making him the undisputed King of the .400 Hitters!

NEXT.....Those who have come the closest to .400 since "The Splendid Splinter" turned the trick in 1941.

STEPHEN STRASBURG, HALL OF FAME OR BUST? OR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN?

On August 17, 2009 the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg agreed to a 15.1 million dollar contract. Unprecedented numbers for a draft pick, but this is no ordinary draft pick. The 6'4" 220 pounder has, on paper, all the elements of a "can't miss" player. His fastball hits between 95 and 97 MPH and has been clocked as high as 103. Complimented by a curve that ranges between 79 and 81, the twenty two year old had been mowing down the opposition at San Diego State. This culminated in a no-hitter in his last home start in which he struck out 17 Air Force hitters. As a sophomore, he once struck out 23 Utah Utes and in his junior year he compiled a record of 13-1 with an ERA of 1.32. He allowed just 59 hits, and 19 walks while striking out 195 batters in 109 innings!

His professional career consists of five starts and 19 innings pitched with the Phoenix Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League; he was 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA, he walked 7 and struck out 23. It is widely held that the 2010 season will mark the beginning of Strasburg's major league career. It may come early in the year, it may come later but it seems unlikely that the Nationals are not going to begin, as soon as possible, to recoup some of their 15 million dollar investment.

What can be expected of this phenom? If history tells us anything, and it usually does, the fates will not be kind to Strasburg and the Nationals. A peek into the past might tell us why.

Steve Chilcott, Brien Taylor, Matt Bush; do those names mean anything to you? These men each have two things in common, actually three. They each were the overall number one draft picks in the MLB draft; Chilcott in 1966, Taylor in 1991 and Matt Bush in 2004. They each were drafted and signed out of high school and neither one of them ever played in a major league baseball game!

The MLB baseball draft, in it's current incarnation, dates back to 1965. The then Kansas City Athletics, made Rick Monday of Arizona State the first ever overall number one pick. Not one MLB overall number one pick has been enshrined in Cooperstown. That will change within the next decade as Ken Griffey Jr is sure to be a first ballot inductee and Chipper Jones will garner significant support. Alex Rodriquez may arrive at Cooperstown's pearly gates as well but the steroid fallout may or may not contribute to postponing his induction.

Several of them have had solid major league careers: Harold Baines, 22 seasons, six all star appearences, just short of 2900 hits and 384 career homers. Darrell Strawberry, a wealth of talent sidetracked by demons yet still made eight all star teams, was named rookie of the year and twice finished in the top three in NL MVP voting. Jeff Burroughs was the 1974 AL MVP with the Texas Rangers. What does all this have to do with Strasburg? Nothing, but the history of pitchers drafted at overall number one paints a little different picture.

Strasburg became the thirteenth pitcher chosen as the top pick when he was tabbed by the Nationals last June. He is the third pitcher chosen at this spot in the last four years and the tenth righthander selected. Only three southpaws have been selected as the number one pick in the forty five years of the draft. The list follows in order:

YEAR PLAYER TEAM RECORD
1973 David Clyde LH Rangers 18-33
1976 Floyd Bannister LH Astros 134-143
1981 Mike Moore RH Mariners 161-176
1984 *Tim Belcher RH Yankees 146-140
1988 Andy Benes RH Padres 155-139
1989 Ben McDonald Orioles 78-70
1994 Paul Wilson Mets 40-58
1996 #Kris Benson Pirates 69-74
1997 Matt Anderson Tigers 15-7
2002 #Bryan Bullington Pirates 0-5
2006 #Luke Hochevar Royals 13-26
2007 #David Price Rays 10-7
2009 Steven Strasburg Nationals ????????

* first overall in secondary phase January 1984
# Still active or in camp 2010

David Clyde was 18 years old when he was drafted out of Westchester High School in Houston Texas on June 5, 1973. Twenty two days later he was on the mound at Arlington Stadium against the Minnesota Twins. He pitched five innings, gave up only one hit, (a two run homer) walked 7, fanned 8 and beat Jim Kaat. He was 7-18 with the Rangers in three seasons before being traded to the Indians. He spent two years in the minor leagues before returning to the bigs in 1978. He went 8-11 for the Tribe and led the league in wild pitches. By the end of the 1979 season, Clyde was out of baseball. However, I'm sure that more than once he has told the tale of facing Reggie Jackson ten times and only allowing him two singles while striking him out five times. Oh and two picks behind the Rangers at three, the Brewers chose Robin Yount. And after that at four, the Padres selected Dave Winfield.

Floyd Bannister was drafted by the Astros in June of 1976 out of Arizona State University. The following year, at the age of 22, he was in the majors. He played for 15 seasons with 6 teams achieving his most success with the White Sox where he had his only three winning seasons and won 16 games twice. He led the league in strikeouts one year, two others led the AL in K's per nine innings and was named an All Star in 1982. A middle of the rotation pitcher he had several solid years but not what the Astros had in mind when they made him baseball's top choice in 1976.

Mike Moore was tabbed at number one by the Mariners out of Oral Roberts University in 1981. Another middle of the rotation hurler, Moore pitched for Seattle, Oakland and the Tigers. A bit more successful than Bannister, Moore had three 17 win seasons and in 1989, he went 19-11 for the A's and made the AL all star team. He added two wins in the 1989, earthquake World Series against the Giants. He had 161 big league wins but was 15 games under .500 for his career.

Tim Belcher was the first pitcher drafted at the top spot to finish his career with a winning record. He also owns the distinction of being drafted in the top spot twice. First by the Twins in June of 1983 and after not signing, again by the Yankees in the secondary draft in January of 1984. Within a month, he was taken by the Oakland A's as a free agent compensation pick and three years later he was traded to the Dodgers. He pitched 14 seasons with the Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Royals and Angels. Three times he won 15 games but his best year, ironically, was his rookie year of 1988. He went 12-6 with the Dodgers with a 2.91 ERA and he won 2 games in the NLCS and 1 game in the World Series as the Dodgers upset the mighty A's in the "I don't believe what I just saw", Kirk Gibson World Series.

Andy Benes was in a word, a winner. The first pick out of the University of Evansville in Indiana, he pitched 14 seasons with the Padres, Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Mariners. In those 14 seasons he compiled a record of 155-139 and he only had "losing seasons" three times, two of them being years of 10-11 and 13-14. A solid number two starter throughout most of his career, his best season was in 1996 when he went 18-10 with the Cardinals. He started 9 post season games throwing 54 2/3 innings with a 1-1 record and a 5.47 ERA. In the strike shortened season of 1994, he led the NL in strikeouts with 189. Ironically, it was his worst won/loss record as he went 6-14.

Highly touted out of LSU in 1989, Ben McDonald had a nine year career that can best be described as unfulfilled promise. Playing for seven seasons with the Orioles (5) and Brewers(2) he had double digit wins in four of those seasons. His best year came in 1994 when he went 14-7 with Baltimore. He finished his career with a 78-70 mark but never came close to being the top of the rotation guy that the Orioles had hoped.

In 1994, The New York Mets selected Florida State's Paul Wilson in the draft's top spot. In June of 1996, he made his debut and stayed with the Mets for the season going 5-12 with a 5.38 ERA. He was traded to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in July of 2000 where he toiled for three seasons. Becoming a free agent in December 2002, he signed and finished his career in Cincinnati with the Reds. It was a career defined by mediocrity as he went 40-58 and he was finished at the age of 32.


Kris Benson was the first of two Pirate pitching flops out of the draft's top slot. Drafted out of Clemson in 1996, the Georgia native made it to the Pirates staff in 1999 going 11-14 with a 4.07 ERA. In a career that has spanned 8 seasons and 4 teams, Benson has compiled a record of 69-74 with a 4.41 ERA. In 2009 he pitched 22 1/3 innings with the Texas Rangers going 1-1 with an 8.46 ERA. At 35 it appears as if he's hit the end of the line. He actually made more headlines off the field when his then wife Anna was negotiating with Playboy to pose for their magazine. Kris contended that was the reason the Mets traded him. I think it might be more that throughout his career it cost his teams $500,000 for every win he was able to produce.

Matt Anderson was chosen out of Rice University by the Detroit Tigers in 1997. He made his debut one year later and in fact, in his rookie year, showed some promise as a set up man going 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA. He had six seasons with the Tigers and closed out with the Rockies in 2005. He actually had 22 saves in 2002 but never could overcome control issues. He finished his career with a 15-7 mark but his ERA was 5.19. He totaled 256 2/3 innings in his career striking out 224 and walking 157. He never started a game in the majors.


The second faux pas of the Pirates in six years came in 2002 when they selected Bryan Bullington out of Ball State in the top spot. He made it to the Big Leagues in Sept of 2005 and as he attempts, this spring, to land a spot on the staff of the Kansas City Royals, he does so still seeking his first big league win. In four seasons with the Pirates, Indians and Blue Jays, he has pitched but 39 innings, is 0-5 with a 5.08 ERA. In September he will turn 30 and it appears as if time is running out on this former number one.

In 2006, the Kansas City Royals tabbed Luke Hochevar out of the University of Tennessee as the number one choice in the land. The following season Hochevar made his debut. The 26 year old has been in the Royals rotation the past two years with mixed results. Last year he was 7-13 with a 6.55 ERA. It was a Jekyll and Hyde year for the young righthander as he allowed 6 earned runs in 9 of his starts and in 8 other starts he only allowed 2 earned runs or less. The jury is still out on the former Vol who is slated to hold down the third spot in the 2010 rotation of the Royals.

David Price was the last "can't miss" pitcher drafted at the top of the heap. The Rays selected the 6'6" southpaw out of Vanderbilt in 2007. Price paid immediate dividends, making his major league debut in September of 2008 as the Rays were making their first ever playoff bid. He appeared in only five games, and threw only 14 innings yet he was on the mound when the Rays defeated the Red Sox in game 7 of the ALCS earning them their first ever American League pennant. It was Price's first major league win! Last year he settled at the back end of the Rays rotation where he went 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. Not bad for a 23 year old pitcher facing the metal of the American League East. He will start the 2010 campaign as the number three or four starter in the Rays rotation but could well be the ace of the staff by seasons end.

Some observations about the collective performance of all the pitchers chosen at the overall number one position are really quite astounding. To begin with, none have ever had a 20 win season in the major leagues. (Mike Moore came the closest going 19-11 in 1989). None has ever won a Cy Young Award. In fact, only five times have they even been in the top ten in Cy Young Award voting: Tim Belcher finished 6th in the NL voting in 1989, Mike Moore finished 10th in the 1985 AL voting and 3rd in 1989 and Andy Benes had two appearances in the NL Cy Young voting, 6th in 1991 and 3rd in 1996. Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore, Tim Belcher and Andy Benes each made one all star team.

The collective record of all 12 draft picks is 839 wins and 888 losses for a winning percentage of .486. And in the 101 collective seasons pitched by all these pitchers, there were 46 seasons in which they won more games than they lost, 47 seasons where they lost more games than they won and 8 seasons where they finished .500. Only four of them, Bannister, Belcher, Benes and Price have pitched in the post season. They collectively have hurled 103 2/3 innings for a 7-4 mark and an ERA of 5.03.

So the stage is set for Strasburg, as he stands poised to make his first major league appearance, we wonder, will he be the one to break the trend? Will he be the first pitcher selected at the coveted "overall number one" slot to deliver all of the expectations? Time will tell but one thing is for certain, if he does, he will not only have to tame the likes of Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, et al. But he will have to defeat perhaps the toughest opponent of them all.....History!