STEPHEN STRASBURG, HALL OF FAME OR BUST? OR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN?

On August 17, 2009 the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg agreed to a 15.1 million dollar contract. Unprecedented numbers for a draft pick, but this is no ordinary draft pick. The 6'4" 220 pounder has, on paper, all the elements of a "can't miss" player. His fastball hits between 95 and 97 MPH and has been clocked as high as 103. Complimented by a curve that ranges between 79 and 81, the twenty two year old had been mowing down the opposition at San Diego State. This culminated in a no-hitter in his last home start in which he struck out 17 Air Force hitters. As a sophomore, he once struck out 23 Utah Utes and in his junior year he compiled a record of 13-1 with an ERA of 1.32. He allowed just 59 hits, and 19 walks while striking out 195 batters in 109 innings!

His professional career consists of five starts and 19 innings pitched with the Phoenix Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League; he was 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA, he walked 7 and struck out 23. It is widely held that the 2010 season will mark the beginning of Strasburg's major league career. It may come early in the year, it may come later but it seems unlikely that the Nationals are not going to begin, as soon as possible, to recoup some of their 15 million dollar investment.

What can be expected of this phenom? If history tells us anything, and it usually does, the fates will not be kind to Strasburg and the Nationals. A peek into the past might tell us why.

Steve Chilcott, Brien Taylor, Matt Bush; do those names mean anything to you? These men each have two things in common, actually three. They each were the overall number one draft picks in the MLB draft; Chilcott in 1966, Taylor in 1991 and Matt Bush in 2004. They each were drafted and signed out of high school and neither one of them ever played in a major league baseball game!

The MLB baseball draft, in it's current incarnation, dates back to 1965. The then Kansas City Athletics, made Rick Monday of Arizona State the first ever overall number one pick. Not one MLB overall number one pick has been enshrined in Cooperstown. That will change within the next decade as Ken Griffey Jr is sure to be a first ballot inductee and Chipper Jones will garner significant support. Alex Rodriquez may arrive at Cooperstown's pearly gates as well but the steroid fallout may or may not contribute to postponing his induction.

Several of them have had solid major league careers: Harold Baines, 22 seasons, six all star appearences, just short of 2900 hits and 384 career homers. Darrell Strawberry, a wealth of talent sidetracked by demons yet still made eight all star teams, was named rookie of the year and twice finished in the top three in NL MVP voting. Jeff Burroughs was the 1974 AL MVP with the Texas Rangers. What does all this have to do with Strasburg? Nothing, but the history of pitchers drafted at overall number one paints a little different picture.

Strasburg became the thirteenth pitcher chosen as the top pick when he was tabbed by the Nationals last June. He is the third pitcher chosen at this spot in the last four years and the tenth righthander selected. Only three southpaws have been selected as the number one pick in the forty five years of the draft. The list follows in order:

YEAR PLAYER TEAM RECORD
1973 David Clyde LH Rangers 18-33
1976 Floyd Bannister LH Astros 134-143
1981 Mike Moore RH Mariners 161-176
1984 *Tim Belcher RH Yankees 146-140
1988 Andy Benes RH Padres 155-139
1989 Ben McDonald Orioles 78-70
1994 Paul Wilson Mets 40-58
1996 #Kris Benson Pirates 69-74
1997 Matt Anderson Tigers 15-7
2002 #Bryan Bullington Pirates 0-5
2006 #Luke Hochevar Royals 13-26
2007 #David Price Rays 10-7
2009 Steven Strasburg Nationals ????????

* first overall in secondary phase January 1984
# Still active or in camp 2010

David Clyde was 18 years old when he was drafted out of Westchester High School in Houston Texas on June 5, 1973. Twenty two days later he was on the mound at Arlington Stadium against the Minnesota Twins. He pitched five innings, gave up only one hit, (a two run homer) walked 7, fanned 8 and beat Jim Kaat. He was 7-18 with the Rangers in three seasons before being traded to the Indians. He spent two years in the minor leagues before returning to the bigs in 1978. He went 8-11 for the Tribe and led the league in wild pitches. By the end of the 1979 season, Clyde was out of baseball. However, I'm sure that more than once he has told the tale of facing Reggie Jackson ten times and only allowing him two singles while striking him out five times. Oh and two picks behind the Rangers at three, the Brewers chose Robin Yount. And after that at four, the Padres selected Dave Winfield.

Floyd Bannister was drafted by the Astros in June of 1976 out of Arizona State University. The following year, at the age of 22, he was in the majors. He played for 15 seasons with 6 teams achieving his most success with the White Sox where he had his only three winning seasons and won 16 games twice. He led the league in strikeouts one year, two others led the AL in K's per nine innings and was named an All Star in 1982. A middle of the rotation pitcher he had several solid years but not what the Astros had in mind when they made him baseball's top choice in 1976.

Mike Moore was tabbed at number one by the Mariners out of Oral Roberts University in 1981. Another middle of the rotation hurler, Moore pitched for Seattle, Oakland and the Tigers. A bit more successful than Bannister, Moore had three 17 win seasons and in 1989, he went 19-11 for the A's and made the AL all star team. He added two wins in the 1989, earthquake World Series against the Giants. He had 161 big league wins but was 15 games under .500 for his career.

Tim Belcher was the first pitcher drafted at the top spot to finish his career with a winning record. He also owns the distinction of being drafted in the top spot twice. First by the Twins in June of 1983 and after not signing, again by the Yankees in the secondary draft in January of 1984. Within a month, he was taken by the Oakland A's as a free agent compensation pick and three years later he was traded to the Dodgers. He pitched 14 seasons with the Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Royals and Angels. Three times he won 15 games but his best year, ironically, was his rookie year of 1988. He went 12-6 with the Dodgers with a 2.91 ERA and he won 2 games in the NLCS and 1 game in the World Series as the Dodgers upset the mighty A's in the "I don't believe what I just saw", Kirk Gibson World Series.

Andy Benes was in a word, a winner. The first pick out of the University of Evansville in Indiana, he pitched 14 seasons with the Padres, Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Mariners. In those 14 seasons he compiled a record of 155-139 and he only had "losing seasons" three times, two of them being years of 10-11 and 13-14. A solid number two starter throughout most of his career, his best season was in 1996 when he went 18-10 with the Cardinals. He started 9 post season games throwing 54 2/3 innings with a 1-1 record and a 5.47 ERA. In the strike shortened season of 1994, he led the NL in strikeouts with 189. Ironically, it was his worst won/loss record as he went 6-14.

Highly touted out of LSU in 1989, Ben McDonald had a nine year career that can best be described as unfulfilled promise. Playing for seven seasons with the Orioles (5) and Brewers(2) he had double digit wins in four of those seasons. His best year came in 1994 when he went 14-7 with Baltimore. He finished his career with a 78-70 mark but never came close to being the top of the rotation guy that the Orioles had hoped.

In 1994, The New York Mets selected Florida State's Paul Wilson in the draft's top spot. In June of 1996, he made his debut and stayed with the Mets for the season going 5-12 with a 5.38 ERA. He was traded to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in July of 2000 where he toiled for three seasons. Becoming a free agent in December 2002, he signed and finished his career in Cincinnati with the Reds. It was a career defined by mediocrity as he went 40-58 and he was finished at the age of 32.


Kris Benson was the first of two Pirate pitching flops out of the draft's top slot. Drafted out of Clemson in 1996, the Georgia native made it to the Pirates staff in 1999 going 11-14 with a 4.07 ERA. In a career that has spanned 8 seasons and 4 teams, Benson has compiled a record of 69-74 with a 4.41 ERA. In 2009 he pitched 22 1/3 innings with the Texas Rangers going 1-1 with an 8.46 ERA. At 35 it appears as if he's hit the end of the line. He actually made more headlines off the field when his then wife Anna was negotiating with Playboy to pose for their magazine. Kris contended that was the reason the Mets traded him. I think it might be more that throughout his career it cost his teams $500,000 for every win he was able to produce.

Matt Anderson was chosen out of Rice University by the Detroit Tigers in 1997. He made his debut one year later and in fact, in his rookie year, showed some promise as a set up man going 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA. He had six seasons with the Tigers and closed out with the Rockies in 2005. He actually had 22 saves in 2002 but never could overcome control issues. He finished his career with a 15-7 mark but his ERA was 5.19. He totaled 256 2/3 innings in his career striking out 224 and walking 157. He never started a game in the majors.


The second faux pas of the Pirates in six years came in 2002 when they selected Bryan Bullington out of Ball State in the top spot. He made it to the Big Leagues in Sept of 2005 and as he attempts, this spring, to land a spot on the staff of the Kansas City Royals, he does so still seeking his first big league win. In four seasons with the Pirates, Indians and Blue Jays, he has pitched but 39 innings, is 0-5 with a 5.08 ERA. In September he will turn 30 and it appears as if time is running out on this former number one.

In 2006, the Kansas City Royals tabbed Luke Hochevar out of the University of Tennessee as the number one choice in the land. The following season Hochevar made his debut. The 26 year old has been in the Royals rotation the past two years with mixed results. Last year he was 7-13 with a 6.55 ERA. It was a Jekyll and Hyde year for the young righthander as he allowed 6 earned runs in 9 of his starts and in 8 other starts he only allowed 2 earned runs or less. The jury is still out on the former Vol who is slated to hold down the third spot in the 2010 rotation of the Royals.

David Price was the last "can't miss" pitcher drafted at the top of the heap. The Rays selected the 6'6" southpaw out of Vanderbilt in 2007. Price paid immediate dividends, making his major league debut in September of 2008 as the Rays were making their first ever playoff bid. He appeared in only five games, and threw only 14 innings yet he was on the mound when the Rays defeated the Red Sox in game 7 of the ALCS earning them their first ever American League pennant. It was Price's first major league win! Last year he settled at the back end of the Rays rotation where he went 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. Not bad for a 23 year old pitcher facing the metal of the American League East. He will start the 2010 campaign as the number three or four starter in the Rays rotation but could well be the ace of the staff by seasons end.

Some observations about the collective performance of all the pitchers chosen at the overall number one position are really quite astounding. To begin with, none have ever had a 20 win season in the major leagues. (Mike Moore came the closest going 19-11 in 1989). None has ever won a Cy Young Award. In fact, only five times have they even been in the top ten in Cy Young Award voting: Tim Belcher finished 6th in the NL voting in 1989, Mike Moore finished 10th in the 1985 AL voting and 3rd in 1989 and Andy Benes had two appearances in the NL Cy Young voting, 6th in 1991 and 3rd in 1996. Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore, Tim Belcher and Andy Benes each made one all star team.

The collective record of all 12 draft picks is 839 wins and 888 losses for a winning percentage of .486. And in the 101 collective seasons pitched by all these pitchers, there were 46 seasons in which they won more games than they lost, 47 seasons where they lost more games than they won and 8 seasons where they finished .500. Only four of them, Bannister, Belcher, Benes and Price have pitched in the post season. They collectively have hurled 103 2/3 innings for a 7-4 mark and an ERA of 5.03.

So the stage is set for Strasburg, as he stands poised to make his first major league appearance, we wonder, will he be the one to break the trend? Will he be the first pitcher selected at the coveted "overall number one" slot to deliver all of the expectations? Time will tell but one thing is for certain, if he does, he will not only have to tame the likes of Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, et al. But he will have to defeat perhaps the toughest opponent of them all.....History!